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Wind Power

Wind power is one of the most advanced renewable energy sources, comprising almost 5% of world electricity as of 2018 1. See our analysis of offshore wind in the context of energy from oceans.

Wind Energy Cost

The following portrays the cost from onshore, offshore, and other potential forms of wind power.

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Data sources: Carbon Trust 2, de Pee et al. 3, Electric Power Research Institute 4, Ennis and Bacelli 5, IEA et al. 6, International Renewable Energy Agency 7, Kost et al. 8, Lazard 9, Logan et al. 10, Mann 11, Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Task Force 12, OpenEI 13, PD Ports 14, The Crown Estate 15, EIA 16.

Grid integration costs for wind power are estimated at 1.5 ¢/kWh 17.

Historically, the cost of wind decreases by about 7% for each doubling of installed capacity 18, 19. The International Energy Agency projects a 25% cost reduction by 2050 20.

Problem:
Need to Achieve Net Zero Emissions
Solution:
Accelerate Investment into Wind Energy

Environmental Considerations

We estimate the following external costs from wind power from greenhouse gas emissions, non-greenhouse air pollutants, and scenic disamenities.

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Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated from Schlömer et al. 21, valued at $50/ton CO₂-equivalent 22; other air pollution damages and valuation of scenic disamenities are estimated from Samadi 23. Deaths of birds and bats from turbine operation are not included 24.

Public concern about the visual appearance of turbines, noise, and health impacts can impede project develoment 25. There is little evidence behind the fear of "wind turbine syndrome", the idea that the sound generated by wind turbines causes adverse health effects 26.

Research Priorities

Although the wind industry is mature, there are several innovations under development that will likely further improve its performance.

Vertical Axis Wind Turbines

A vertical-axis wind turbine is arranged so that the rotor shaft is perpendicular to the wind, in contrast to the more common horizontal axis turbines. VAWTs are used primary for microgrids and harsh environments 27, but they could provide better land-use efficiency 28 and lower cost 29 than HAWTs for offshore wind.

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Levelized costs of electricity are assessed for a 5 MW offshore wind array, assuming both VAWT and HAWT technology is developed to maturity. Source: 30.

However, VAWTs are not proven at scale, and some engineers are skeptical of the concept 31.

Turbine Size

Larger turbines generally produce electricity at lower financial and environmental costs 32, and both onshore and offshore wind turbine have been steadily growing in size.

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Historical onshore turbine sizes are given by Wiser et al., 2018 33, and future size projections and historical offshore sizes are given by Wiser et al., 2016 34.

Turbine Technology

Several studies suggest that adding winglets to the tips of turbine blades would increase power output 35, 36, 37, perhaps by 2-8% 38. Winglets would also reduce high-frequency noise 39.

Problem:
Limitations of Wind Power
Solution:
Retrofit Wind Turbines with Winglets

New generator technologies have the potential to reduce costs. Two leading candidates are superconducting drivetrains and pseudo direct drive generators based on permanent magnets, though cost reductions in superconducting material are needed for the former to be feasible 40. Potential advantages of a superconducting drivetrain include reduced generator weight 41 and reduced reliance on potentially scarce dysprosium 42.

Problem:
Limitations of Wind Power
Solution:
Wind Turbine Drivetrain R&D

High-Altitude Wind

A high-altitude wind turbine, flown with a kite, would access the less intermittent jetstream wind source and could further reduce intermittency by adjusting altitude 43. Miller, Gans, and Kleidon 44 estimate that the jetstream potential resource is 7.5 TW, less than half of world energy use, and harvesting all of it would cause climate disruption, whereas Archer and Caldeira 43 estimate that high-altitude wind could supply all the world's energy needs without climate impact. The risk of an accident is also uncertain.

We estimate the cost of a high-altitude wind research program to be about $22 billion and the expected benefit $21 billion. As the technology is far from commercialization, we estimate the time for such a program is 25 years 45, at the same $830 million annual cost as a proposed wave energy research program. The potential cost is estimated to be as low as 2.5 ¢/kWh 46. We assume that high-altitude wind has the same greehounse gas and non-GHG impacts as conventional wind, except a zero visual disamenity cost is assumed. For the purposes of this calculation, we assume the more expansive resource availability of Archer and Caldeira. See our analysis of research and development for more information.

While the expected cost and benefit of high-altitude wind are approximately equal, both are highly uncertain. These estimates would benefit greatly from more research into the resource potential in particular.

Hurricanes and Tornados

Hurricanes and tornados carry an intense amount of energy, but modern wind turbines are not able to harvest it, and they must be shut down during hurricanes to prevent damage 47, 48. Developing turbines that can harvest hurricane-force winds is an active area of research, such as by the Japanese company Challenergy 49.

Problem:
Limitations of Wind Power
Solution:
Hurricane Resistant Turbines R&D

Atmospheric Vortex Engine

An atmospheric vortex engine is a device, similar to but simpler than a solar updraft tower, that creates artificial tornado conditions with an external source of heat, such as solar power, and harvests energy from them 50. The concept may have promise, but it is in the early stages of development 51.

References

  1. BP. "Statistical Review of World Energy". June 2019. ↩

  2. Carbon Trust. "Offshore wind power: big challenge, big opportunity". October 2008. ↩

  3. de Pee, A., Küster, F., Schlosser, A. "Winds of change? Why offshore wind might be the next big thing". McKinsey. May 2017. ↩

  4. Electric Power Research Institute. "Australian Power Generation Technology Report". 2015. ↩

  5. Ennis, B., Bacelli, G. "Floating Offshore Vertical-Axis Wind Turbine System Design Studies and Opportunities". Sandia National Laboratories. Accessed May 17, 2019. ↩

  6. International Energy Agency, Nuclear Energy Agency, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development. "Projected Costs of Generating Electricity: 2015 Edition". September 2015. ↩

  7. International Renewable Energy Agency. "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017". January 2018. ↩

  8. Kost, C., Shammugam, S., Jülch, V., Nguyen, H., Schlegl, T. "Levelized Cost of Electricity: Renewable Energy Technologies". Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE. March 2018. ↩

  9. Lazard. "Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis - Version 12.0". November 2018. ↩

  10. Logan, J. et al. "Electricity Generation Baseline Report". National Renewable Energy Laboratory. January 2017. ↩

  11. Mann, S. "An Introduction to Airborne Wind". Catapult Offshore Renewable Energy. February 2019. ↩

  12. Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Task Force. "Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Task Force Report". June 2012. ↩

  13. OpenEI. "Transparent Cost Database". Accessed May 11, 2019. ↩

  14. PD Ports - A Brookfield Ports Company. "Offshore Wind Project Cost Outlook, 2014 Edition". Research provided by Clean Energy Pipeline. ↩

  15. The Crown Estate. "Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Pathways Study". May 2012. ↩

  16. U.S. Energy Information Administration. "Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation". February 2019. ↩

  17. Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency. "Nuclear Energy and Renewables: System Effects in Low-carbon Electricity Systems". 2012. ↩

  18. International Renewable Energy Agency. "Wind Power". Renewable Energy Technologies: Cost Analysis Series, Volume 1: Power Sector. June 2012. ↩

  19. International Renewable Energy Agency, Nuclear Energy Agency. "Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, 2010 Edition". ↩

  20. International Energy Agency. "Technology Roadmap - Wind Energy, 2013 Edition". ↩

  21. Schlömer S., T. Bruckner, L. Fulton, E. Hertwich, A. McKinnon, D. Perczyk, J. Roy, R. Schaeffer, R. Sims, P. Smith, and R. Wiser. Annex III: Technology-specific cost and performance parameters. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 2014. ↩

  22. Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon. "Technical Support Document: Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis". Under Executive Order 12866, United States Government. August 2016. ↩

  23. Samadi, S. "The Social Costs of Electricity Generation-Categorising Different Types of Costs and Evaluating Their Respective Relevance". Energies 10(3), pp. 356. 2017. ↩

  24. The OSPAR Commission. "Assessment of the environmental impact of offshore wind-farms". 2008. ↩

  25. Smith, E., Klick, H. "Explaining NIMBY Opposition to Wind Power". 2007. ↩

  26. Rand, J., Hoen, B. "Thirty years of North American wind energy acceptance research: What have we learned?". Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. July 2017. ↩

  27. Cohen, A. "Are Vertical Turbines The Future Of Offshore Wind Power?". Forbes. May 2021. ↩

  28. Hansen, J. T., Mahak, M., Tzanakis, I. "Numerical modelling and optimization of vertical axis wind turbine pairs: A scale up approach". Renewable Energy 171, pp. 1371-1381. June 2021. ↩

  29. Sandia National Laboratories. "Sandia Study Provides Insight into Technical and Economic Feasibility of This Less-Common Turbine Design". Wind Energy Technologies Office, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, U. S. Department of Energy. October 2018. ↩

  30. Shelley, S. A., Boo, S. Y., Kim, D., Luyties, W. H. "Comparing Levelized Cost of Energy for a 200 MW Floating Wind Farm using Vertical and Horizontal Axis Turbines in the Northeast U. S. A.". OTC-28700-MS, Offshore Technology Conference. April 2018. ↩

  31. de Vries, E. "Are vertical-axis wind turbines really the future?". Windpower Monthly. May 2021. ↩

  32. Caduff, M., Huijbregts, M., Althaus, H., Koehler, A. "Wind Power Electricity: The Bigger the Turbine, The Greener the Electricity?". Environmental Science & Technology 46(9), pp. 4725-33. April 2012. ↩

  33. Wiser, R., Bolinger, M., Barbose, G., Darghouth, N., Hoen, B., Mills, A., Rand, J., Millstein, D., Porter, K., Fisher, K., Disanti, N., Oteri, F. "2017 Wind Technologies Market Report". U. S. Department of Energy, Office of Efficiency & Renewable Energy, Wind Energy Technologies Office. August 2018. ↩

  34. Wiser, R., Hand, M., Seel, J., Paulos, B. "Reducing Wind Energy Costs through Increased Turbine Size: Is the Sky the Limit?". Berkeley Lab. November 2016. ↩

  35. Gupta, A., Amano, R. "CFD Analysis of Wind Turbine Blade With Winglets". ASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. Volume 5: 6th International Conference on Micro- and Nanosystems; 17th Design for Manufacturing and the Life Cycle Conference. Paper No. DETC2012-70679, pp. 843-849; 7 pages. 2012. ↩

  36. Johansen, J., Sørensen, N. "Aerodynamic investigation of Winglets on Wind Turbine Blades using CFD". Risø National Laboratory, Denmark. February 2006. ↩

  37. Sessarego, M., Ramos-Garc´ıa, N., Shen, W. "Analysis of winglets and sweep on wind turbine blades using a lifting line vortex particle method in complex inflow conditions". Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1037 022021. 2018. ↩

  38. Gertz, D., Johnson, D., Swytink-Binnema, N. "Comparative Measurements of the Effect of a Winglet on a Wind Turbine". Wind Energy - Impact of Turbulence pp .121-126, Research Topics in Wind Energy, Volume 2. 2014. ↩

  39. Ebrahimi, A., Mardani, R. "Tip-Vortex Noise Reduction of a Wind Turbine Using a Winglet". Journal of Energy Engineering 144(1). February 2018. ↩

  40. Abrahamsen, A., Liu, D., Magnusson, N., Thomas, A., Azar, Z., Stehouwer, E., Hendriks, B., Van Zinderen, G., Deng, F., Chen, Z., Karwatzki, D., Mertens, A., Parker, M., Finney, S., Polinder, H. "Comparison of Levelized Cost of Energy of Superconducting Direct Drive Generators for a 10-MW Offshore Wind Turbine". IEEE Transactions on Applied Superconductivity 28(4). June 2018. ↩

  41. Snitchler, G., Gamble, B., King, C., Winn, P. "10 MW Class Superconductor Wind Turbine Generators". IEEE Transactions in Applied Superconductivity 21(3). June 2011. ↩

  42. Shammugan, S., Gervais, E., Schlegl, T., Rathgeber, A. "Raw metal needs and supply risks for the development of wind energy in Germany until 2050". Journal of Cleaner Production 221, pp. 738-752. June 2019. ↩

  43. Archer, C., Caldeira, K. "Global Assessment of High-Altitude Wind Power". Energies 2, pp. 307-319. 2009. ↩ ↩2

  44. Miller L., Gans, F., Kleidon, A. "Jet stream wind power as a renewable energy resource: little power, big impacts". Earth Syst. Dynam. 2, pp. 201-212. 2011. ↩

  45. Sofge, E. "The Quest To Harness Wind Energy At 2,000 Feet". Popular Science. October 2014. ↩

  46. Roberts, B. "Cost and security of electricity generated by high altitude winds". Future Directions International. May 2012. ↩

  47. Donahue, M. Z. "Can We Capture Energy From a Hurricane?". Smithsonian Magazine. October 2016. ↩

  48. Spoon, M. "Can we harness energy from tornadoes and hurricanes?". How Stuff Works?. Accessed June 7, 2022. ↩

  49. Matsunaka, Y. "A Typhoon-Proof Wind Turbine Is Generating an Energy Shift for Remote Islands". Redshift by Autodesk. October 2021. ↩

  50. Michaud, L. M. "The atmospheric vortex engine". 2009 IEEE Toronto International Conference Science and Technology for Humanity. 2009. ↩

  51. Kayiem, A., Jaafer, H. H., Gilani, S. I., Mustafa, A. T. "A review of the vortex engine". In: The sustainable city VIII, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia. December 2013. ↩