New Cities

Today the world is near the all-time peak of the growth of urban population. These conditions stimulate interest in the growth of existing cities and in the building of new cities, some possibilities of which are outlined below.

Charter Cities

Charter cities are cities, typically guaranteed by an organization such as a company or an external country, with civil laws and judiciary indepedent of the host country. Charter cities, and the related structure of special economic zones, are meant to allow experimentation with economic policy and are hoped to facilitate reforms in the larger country 1.

A review has found that special economic zones, typically smaller and more limited than charter cities, do not typically show higher growth rates than the larger country. Several high profile successes, such as Shenzhen, China, are balanced by several failures 2. Building off this work, it does not appear likely that charter cities are an ideal philanthopic venture, though this remains uncertain 3.

Cities in Exotic Locations

There is significant interest in building new cities or research facilities, particularly in exotic locations such as the ocean or space. The cost of doing so prohibits more than a small number of settlements for niche purposes at this time. See also our consideration of cities at sea.

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SettlementCost/PersonExplanationStatusSource
Land Reclamation$0.1 MEast Lantau Metropolis land reclamation project (2016 estimate). Only includes the land itself.ProposedZhao
Songdo, South Korea$0.153 MA $40 billion dollar development (2010) planned for 300,000 people.Partially constructedPoon
Antarctica$0.25 MMcMurdo Station upgrade has an estimated cost of $300 million and hosts up to 1,200 people.PlannedGramling
Manhattan$0.408 MOne Bedroom in Manhattan, assumes 2 people.Observed market conditions in 2018Frank
City at Sea$0.674 MSeasteading Institute: estimated cost of $255 million (2014) for a project to hold 360 people.ConceptHencken et al.
Underwater City$1.467 MThe Hydropolis project promised (2008) a 220-room facility for $550 million. We assume two people per room.CancelledRos
Mars Colony$50 MProposal for a 1,000 person Mars colony for $50 billion.ConceptHeidmann and Brisson
Lunar Base$1,000 MProposal for a $10 billion base that would host 10 people.ProposalHall and Miller
International Space Station$25,000 MThe International Space Station has cost $150 billion and has a crew of 6.Cumulative and planned costs as of 2010Lafleur

Estimated costs, per person, of settlements in exotic locations, compared to select current locations. For projects that are not built, cost estimates should be regarded as highly speculative. Sources: Frank 4, Gramling 5, Hall and Miller 6, Heidmann and Brisson 7, Hencken et al. 8, Lafleur 9, Poon 10, Ros 11, Zhao 12.

References

  1. Romer. P. "Technologies, Rules, and Progress: The Case for Charter Cities". Working Papers id:2471, eSocialSciences. April 2010.

  2. Competitive Industries and Innovation Program, World Bank Group. "Special Economic Zones : An Operational Review of Their Impacts". 2017.

  3. Bernard, D., Schukraft, J. "Intervention Report: Charter Cities". Effective Altruism Forum, Rethink Priorities. June 2021.

  4. Frank, R. "Manhattan real estate is now in a year-long correction". CNBC. October 2018.

  5. Gramling, C. "Overhaul in the works for aging U.S. Antarctic station". Science Magazine. December 2015.

  6. Hall, A., Miller, C. "A Summary of the Economic Assessment and Systems Analysis of an Evolvable Lunar Architecture That Leverages Commercial Space Capabilities and Public–Private Partnerships". New Space 4(1), pp. 4-6. March 2016.

  7. Heidmann, R., Brisson, P. "An Economic Model for a Martian Colony of a Thousand People". Planete Mars. September 2016.

  8. Hencken, R. et al. "The Floating City Project". The Seasteading Institute. 2014.

  9. Lafleur, C. "Costs of US piloted programs". The Space Review. March 2010.

  10. Poon, L. "Sleepy in Songdo, Korea’s Smartest City". CityLab. June 2018.

  11. Ros, T. "Underwater Hotels - Unique Concept, But Are They Profitable?". Gulf Business. July 2013.

  12. Zhao, S. "Government's ambitious 2030 land reclamation plan to cost HK$400 billion, group says". South China Morning Post. December 2016.